Present bias
Present bias is the tendency to give disproportionate weight to immediate costs and rewards relative to future ones. In behavioural economics it is modelled as a sharp drop in value between now and any later time, which explains why people make sensible plans for their future selves and then reverse them when the moment arrives.
| Field | Behavioural economics |
|---|---|
| Key researchers | Ted O'Donoghue, Matthew Rabin, David Laibson |
| Related concepts | Temporal discounting, hyperbolic discounting, time inconsistency |
Why it matters for procrastination
O'Donoghue and Rabin's 1999 model ("Doing It Now or Later", American Economic Review) makes procrastination a direct prediction of present bias: when a task's cost is immediate and its benefit delayed, each day it is individually rational to wait one more day. The practical countermeasures follow from the model. Move some cost into the future (commitment devices, deadlines with teeth) or move some reward into the present (temptation bundling, short sprints with breaks), and the same biased calculation starts favouring action.
Related
Temporal discountingSteel (2007) meta-analysis
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between present bias and temporal discounting?
Temporal discounting is the general phenomenon of valuing rewards less with delay. Present bias is a specific pattern within it: a large extra penalty applied to anything that is not immediate, with much flatter discounting between two future dates. It is the now-versus-later step that does most of the damage.